You Are Not So Smart Podcast 022 – Survivorship Bias

"Here’s the trick:

When you’re looking for advice you should look for what not to do or what is missing. But do not expect to find that among the quotes and biographical records of people whose signal rose above the noise. They may have no clue how or if they lucked up.

What you can’t see (and what they can’t see) is that the successful tend to make it more probable that unlikely events will happen to them, while trying to steer themselves into the positive side of randomness. They stick with it, remaining open to better opportunities that may require abandoning the current path. And that’s something you can start doing right now without reading a single self-help proverb, maxim, or aphorism.

Also, keep in mind that those who fail rarely get paid for advice on how not to fail. Which is too bad because, despite how it may seem,

success boils down to serially avoiding catastrophic failure, while routinely absorbing manageable damage."

http://youarenotsosmart.com/2014/04/24/yanss-podcast-022-how-we-miss-what-is-missing-and-what-to-do-about-it-with-statistician-megan-price/