adactio / tags / long now

Tagged with “long now” (68)

  1. Kevin Kelly: The Next 30 Digital Years - The Long Now

    IN KEVIN KELLY’S VIEW, a dozen “inevitable” trends will drive the next 30 years of digital progress. Countless artificial smartnesses, for example, will be added to everything, all quite different from human intelligence and from each other. We will tap into them like we do into electricity to become cyber-centaurs — co-dependent humans and AIs. All of us will need to perpetually upgrade just to stay in the game.

    Every possible surface that can become a display will become a display, and will study its watchers. Everything we encounter, “if it cannot interact, it is broken.” Virtual and augmented reality (VR and AR) will become the next platform after smartphones, conveying a profound sense of experience (and shared experience), transforming education (“it burns different circuits in your brain”), and making us intimately trackable. Everything will be tracked, monitored, sensored, and imaged, and people will go along with it because “vanity trumps privacy,”as already proved on Facebook. “Wherever attention flows, money will follow.”

    Access replaces ownership for suppliers as well as consumers. Uber owns no cars; AirBnB owns no real estate. On-demand rules. Sharing rules. Unbundling rules. Makers multiply. “In thirty years the city will look like it does now because we will have rearranged the flows, not the atoms. We will have a different idea of what a city is, and who we are, and how we relate to other people.”

    In the Q&A, Kelly was asked what worried him. “Cyberwar,” he said. “We have no rules. Is it okay to take out an adversary’s banking system? Disasters may have to occur before we get rules. We’re at the point that any other civilization in the galaxy would have a world government. I have no idea how to do that.”

    Kelly concluded: “We are at the beginning of the beginning — the first hour of day one. There have never been more opportunities. The greatest products of the next 25 years have not been invented yet.

    “You‘re not late.“

    —Stewart Brand

    http://longnow.org/seminars/02016/jul/14/next-30-digital-years/

    —Huffduffed by adactio

  2. Brian Christian: Algorithms to Live By - The Long Now

    Solving hard decisions

    Deciding when to stop your quest for the ideal apartment, or ideal spouse, depends entirely on how long you expect to be looking, says Brian Christian.

    The first one you check will be the best you’ve seen, but it’s unlikely to be the best you’ll ever see.

    So you keep looking and keep finding new bests, though ever less frequently, and you start to wonder if maybe you refused the very best you’ll ever find.

    And the search is wearing you down.

    When should you take the leap and look no further?

    The answer from computer science is precise: 37% of the way through your search period.

    If you’re spending a month looking for an apartment, you should calibrate (and be sorely tempted) for 11 days, and then you should grab the next best-of-all you find.

    Likewise with the search for a mate.

    If you’re looking from, say, age 18 to 40, the time to shift from browsing and having fun to getting serious and proposing is at age 26.1.

    (However, if you’re getting lots of refusals, “propose early and often” from age 23.5.

    Or, if you can always go back to an earlier prospect, you could carry on exploring to age 34.4.)

    This “Optimal Stopping” is one of twelve subjects examined in Christian’s (and co-author Tom Griffiths’) book, Algorithms to Live By.

    (The other subjects are: Explore/Exploit; Sorting; Caching; Scheduling; Bayes’ Rule; Overfitting; Relaxation; Randomness; Networking; Game Theory; and Computational Kindness.

    An instance of Bayes’ Rule, called the Copernican Principle, lets you predict how long something of unknown lifespan will last into the future by assuming you’re looking at the middle of its duration—hence the USA, now 241 years old, might be expected to last through 2257.)

    Christian went into detail on the Explore/Exploit problem.

    Optimism minimizes regret.

    You’ve found some restaurants you really like.

    How often should you exploit that knowledge for a guaranteed good meal, and how often should you optimistically take a chance and explore new places to eat?

    The answer, again, depends partly on the interval of time involved.

    When you’re new in town, explore like mad.

    If you’re about to leave a city, stick with the known favorites.

    Infants with 80 years ahead are pure exploration— they try tasting everything.

    Old people, drawing on 70 years of experience, have every reason to pare the friends they want to spend time with down to a favored few.

    The joy of the young is discovering.

    The joy of the old is relishing.

    —Stewart Brand

    http://longnow.org/seminars/02016/jun/20/algorithms-live/

    —Huffduffed by adactio

  3. Kevin Kelly on The Inevitable, 60s Counterculture, and How to Read Better

    This week I was lucky enough to interview one of my favorite people: Kevin Kelly.

    Tim Ferriss refers to Kevin as the real-life, “Most Interesting Man In The World.”

    Kevin Kelly is one of the co-founders of Wired Magazine, a co-founder of the Quantified Self Movement, and serves on the board of The Long Now foundation.

    I’ve been endlessly inspired by Kevin. And it wouldn’t be fair not to mentioned his very early beginnings where he spent most of his 20s as a nomad (of sorts) traveling through Asia as a photographer for most of his 20s. He later published a book of his work titled Asia Grace.

    From there, in the 80s he joined Stewart Brand as the publisher and editor of The Whole Earth Review and was influential in both the 80s counterculture and startup movement.

    His writing in the 90s more or less predicted the Internet of today. His first book, Out of Control is brilliant – a few years after it was released it became required reading for all the actors on the set of the movie The Matrix. (which is how I first learned about it).

    He also has one of my favorite This American Life stories where has something of an epiphany about life, decides to live his life as if he will be dead in 6 months… gives away all his possessions, and then rides his bike across the country.

    In this episode we talk about:

    The Counterculture movement of the 60s

    Traveling as an act of rebellion

    Kevin’s latest book The Inevitable in which he writes that, “Much of what will happen in the next thirty years is inevitable, driven by technological trends that are already in motion.” He’ll share some of those predictions with us.

    Lessons on how to read better

    And… a book that Kevin wishes everyone in the world read at least one time.

    http://castig.org/kevin-kelly-on-the-inevitable-60s-counterculture-and-how-to-read-better/

    —Huffduffed by adactio

  4. 4: The Clock of The Long Now by Stewart Brand | @castig

    Part Four.

    http://castig.org/the-clock-of-the-long-now-by-stewart-brand/

    —Huffduffed by adactio

  5. 3: The Clock of The Long Now by Stewart Brand | @castig

    Part Three.

    http://castig.org/the-clock-of-the-long-now-by-stewart-brand/

    —Huffduffed by adactio

  6. 2: The Clock of The Long Now by Stewart Brand | @castig

    Part Two.

    http://castig.org/the-clock-of-the-long-now-by-stewart-brand/

    —Huffduffed by adactio

  7. 1: The Clock of The Long Now by Stewart Brand | @castig

    Part One

    http://castig.org/the-clock-of-the-long-now-by-stewart-brand/

    —Huffduffed by adactio

  8. Priyamvada Natarajan: Solving Dark Matter and Dark Energy - The Long Now

    The darkness of dark matter and dark energy

    All that we know of the universe we get from observing photons, Natarajan pointed out.

    But dark matter, which makes up 90 percent of the total mass in the universe, is called dark because it neither emits nor reflects photons—and because of our ignorance of what it is!

    It is conjectured to be made up of still-unidentified exotic collisionless particles which might weigh about six times more than an electron.

    Though some challenge whether dark matter even exists, Natarajan is persuaded that it does because of her research on “the heaviest objects in the universe“—galaxy clusters of more than 1,000 galaxies.

    First of all, the rotation of stars within galaxies does not look Keplerian—the outermost stars move far too quickly as discovered in the 1970s.

    Their rapid rate of motion only makes sense if there is a vast “halo” of dark matter enclosing each galaxy.

    And galaxy clusters have so much mass (90 percent of it dark) that their gravitation bends light, “lenses” it.

    A galaxy perfectly aligned on the far side of a galaxy cluster appears to us—via the Hubble Space Telescope—as a set of multiple arc-shaped (distorted) galaxy images.

    Studying the precise geometry of those images can reveal some of the nature of dark matter, such as that it appears to be “clumpy.”

    When the next-generation of space telescopes - the James Webb Space Telescope that comes online in 2018 and the WFIRST a few years afterward, much more will be learned.

    There are also instruments on Earth trying to detect dark-matter particles directly, so far without success.

    As for dark energy—the accelerating expansion of the universe—its shocking discovery came from two independent teams in 1998-99.

    Dark energy is now understood to constitute 72 percent of the entire contents of the universe.

    (Of the remainder, dark matter is 23 percent, and atoms—the part that we know—makes up just 4.6 percent.)

    But when the universe was just 380,000 years old (13.7 billion years ago), there was no dark energy.

    But now “the universe is expanding at a pretty fast clip.”

    Natarajan hopes to use galaxy-cluster lensing as a tool “to trace the geometry of space-time which encodes dark energy.”

    These days, she said, data is coming in from the universe faster than theory can keep up with it.

    ”We are in a golden age of cosmology.”

    —Stewart Brand

    http://longnow.org/seminars/02016/apr/11/solving-dark-matter-and-dark-energy/

    —Huffduffed by adactio

  9. Jane Langdale: Radical Ag: C4 Rice and Beyond - The Long Now

    Revolutionary rice

    Feeding the world (and saving nature) in this populous century, Jane Langdale began, depends entirely on agricultural efficiency—the ability to turn a given amount of land and sunlight into ever more food.

    And that depends on three forms of efficiency in each crop plant: 1) interception efficiency (collecting sunlight); 2) conversion efficiency (turning sunlight into sugars and starch); and 3) partitioning efficiency (maximizing the edible part).

    Of these, after centuries of plant breeding, only conversion efficiency is far short of the theoretical maximum.

    Most photosynthesis (called “C3“) is low-grade, poisoning its own process by reacting with oxygen instead of carbon dioxide when environmental conditions are hot and dry.

    But some plants, such as corn and sugar cane, have a brilliant workaround.

    They separate the photosynthetic process into two adjoining cells.

    The outer cell creates a special four-carbon compound (hence “C4“) that is delivered to the oxygen-protected inner cell. In the inner cell, carbon dioxide is released from the C4 compound, enabling drastically more efficient photosynthesis to take place because carbon dioxide is at a much higher concentration than oxygen.

    Rice is a C3 plant—which happens to be the staple food for half the world.

    If it can be converted to C4 photosynthesis, its yield would increase by 50% while using half the water.

    It would also be drought-resistant and need far less fertilizer.

    Langdale noted that C4 plants have evolved naturally 60 times in a variety of plant families, all of which provide models of the transition.

    “How difficult could it be?” she deadpanned. The engineering begins with reverse-engineering.

    For instance, the main leaves in corn are C4, but the husk leaves are C3-like, so the genes that affect the two forms of development can be studied.

    Langdale’s research suggests that the needed structural change in rice can be managed with about 12 engineered genes, and previous research by others indicates that the biochemical changes can be achieved with perhaps 10 genes.

    How much is needed for the eventual fine tuning will emerge later.

    When is later?

    The C4 Rice project began in 2006 at the International Rice Research Institute in the Philippines, funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

    The research is on schedule, and engineering should begin in 2019, with the expectation that breeding of delicious, fiercely efficient C4 rice could be complete by 2039.

    It is the kind of thing that highly focussed multi-generation science can accomplish.

    —Stewart Brand

    http://longnow.org/seminars/02016/mar/14/radical-ag-c4-rice-and-beyond/

    —Huffduffed by adactio

  10. Stephen Pyne: Fire Slow, Fire Fast, Fire Deep - The Long Now

    Ecological wildfire

    “We are uniquely fire creatures,” Pyne began, “on a uniquely fire planet.”

    Life itself is a form of slow metabolic combustion—which eventually created oxygen and burnable vegetation that allowed fast combustion, ignited by lightning.

    Humans came along and mastered fire for warmth, food preparation, and managing the landscape, and that made us a keystone species.

    Humanity’s ecological signature on the world is fire.

    Then we made fire the all-purpose catalyst for craft (clay, glass, metal) and eventually industry, shifting to the vast geological resource of fossil fuels.

    That “pyric transition” made humans dominant on the earth, even to the point of affecting climate.

    We used fire to clear much of the world’s forest for agriculture.

    Then came a century of misdirection about wildfire.

    The forests of Europe are mostly too wet to burn, but by the late 19th century the leading foresters in world came from there and taught their ignorance to foresters in North America and India, where the land depends on seasonal fire for ecological health.

    National governments set about suppressing all wildfire, with catastrophic success.

    In the absence of the usual occasional local fires, massive fuel loads built up, and destructive megafires became the norm.

    There was an alternative theory of a “restoration strategy” to manage wildfire in way that would emulate how lightning and native American burning kept the landscape ecologically healthy, but it has been applied haltingly and fractionally, and megafires still rule.

    “The real argument for fire is that it does ecological work that nothing else does,” Pyne concluded.

    “Charismatic megaflora” like redwoods need fire.

    An ecologically rich mosaic of forest, savannah, and meadows needs fire.

    Healthy prairie needs fire or it gets taken over by invasive woody plants.

    People trained only as foresters are blind to all that.

    Wildfire practice now works best when it is guided by wildlife biologists who insist that red cockaded woodpeckers need fire-dependent longleaf pines, that grizzly bears need the berries that grow in recent burns, that pheasants need grassland burned free of invasive eastern red cedar.

    The techniques for prescribed burns for a bioabundant natural landscape are now well honed.

    They need to be applied much more widely.

    When in doubt how to proceed, ask the ecologists, who will ask the animals.

    —Stewart Brand

    http://longnow.org/seminars/02016/feb/09/fire-slow-fire-fast-fire-deep/

    —Huffduffed by adactio

Page 1 of 7Older