Extreme events and how to live with them by Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Professor Nassim Nicholas Taleb, New York Darwin College,Darwin College Lectures,Darwin College lecture series,Extremes,Extreme weather,climate science,British Antarctic survey,Emily Shuckburgh,University of Cambridge, Distributions that are dominated by extremes and tail events require a completely different way of thinking. We provide a classification and show where conventional statistical tools fail, such as the conventional law of large numbers. We show how robust statistics is not robust at all; how frequency-based forecasting fails and how past averages misrepresent future ones. We show implications for decision-making in the real world and what modifications are required. Ironically they are often easier to work with. See http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/FatTails.html for more details and papers.


Nassim Nicholas Taleb spent 21 years as a risk taker before becoming a researcher in philosophical, mathematical and (mostly) practical problems with probability. Taleb is the author of a multivolume essay, the Incerto (The Black Swan, Fooled by Randomness, and Antifragile) covering broad facets of uncertainty. It has been translated into 36 languages. In addition to his trader life, Taleb has also published, as a backup of the Incerto, more than 45 scholarly papers in statistical physi…

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