Bobcaygeon / Bruce

There are no people in Bobcaygeon’s collective.

Huffduffed (401)

  1. China, zero covid

    If you would like John’s text books, (it is free to download the high quality PDFs)

    http://159.69.48.3/

    Physiology book in hard copy https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/154770452796?mkevt=1&mkcid=16&mkrid=710-127635-2958-0

    Pathophysiology book in hard copy https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/154770451780?mkevt=1&mkcid=16&mkrid=710-127635-2958-0

    China zero policy

    https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/01/21/world/omicron-covid-vaccine-tests?campaign_id=185&emc=edit_yct_20220121&instance_id=50905&nl=coronavirus-tracker®i_id=110300449&segment_id=80345&te=1&user_id=0b87b8c1eea981ec0514047bbfa553ca#omicron-extends-its-reach-to-some-of-the-planets-most-remote-islands

    During the past month, 30 major Chinese cities, locally transmitted Covid

    Today, 23 local cases in 5 cities

    Hong Kong

    https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/18/world/asia/covid-hong-kong-hamsters.html

    Hong Kong will after a pet shop worker, a customer and at least

    11 hamsters tested positive for the Delta variant

    Cull more than 2,000 hamsters

    Ban import of small animals

    Residents to surrender hamsters imported since Dec. 22

    Infection in a pet shop customer from a worker

    No cases of hamsters to human transmission

    (Hamsters have been infected in laboratories)

    Health officials testing rabbits, chinchillas, guinea pigs

    CDC, fully vaccinated data

    https://c…

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    —Huffduffed by Bobcaygeon

  2. Specialists now agree on endemic ending

    Many waited until the evidence was self evident before stating a position, better late than never.

    https://ourworldindata.org/covid-metrics-previous-waves?utm_source=OWID+Newsletter&utm_campaign=57cd25901b-biweekly-digest-2022-01-14&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_2e166c1fc1-57cd25901b-536960754

    Marco Cavaleri, EMA head of biological health threats and vaccines strategy

    https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/events/ema-regular-press-briefing-covid-19-11

    https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/events/ema-regular-press-briefing-covid-19-11

    Boosters, can be done once, or maybe twice, but it’s not something that we can think should be repeated constantly We need to think about how we can transition from the current pandemic setting to a more endemic setting With omicron there will be a lot of natural immunity taking place on top of vaccination,

    We will be fastly moving to a scenario which is close to endemicity

    Fourth dose for all

    Data has not yet been generated to support this approach

    Repeated vaccinations in a short time frame will not represent a sustainable long term strategy

    Endemic Covid, very soon

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59970281

    Omicron, endemic

    Consistent and predictable, not boom and bust

    Common colds, influenza, HIV, measles, malaria, tuberculosis

    A new Covid-era

    Prof Julian Hiscox, Chair in Inf…

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    —Huffduffed by Bobcaygeon

  3. US hospital concerns

    US hospitals are under great pressure, there are essentially three reasons for this.

    Ontario, Canada, largest province in Canada, population of 15 million.

    Several weeks ago we were told to STOP going for testing unless we were in a high risk category,

    so the number of cases is dramatically under-reported,

    https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/this-is-who-can-and-can-t-get-a-covid-19-test-in-ontario-1.5723794

    So when you see cases dropping in Canada and the R value decreasing, its completely inaccurate, Ontario represents almost half of the popular of the entire country.

    Steve

    US hospital pressure

    https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2022/01/for-covid-with-covid-hospitals-are-mess-either-way/621229/

    With or for covid

    Jeremy Faust, emergency physician Brigham and Women’s Hospital, Massachusetts

    The truth is, we’re still in the emergency phase of the pandemic,

    and everyone who is downplaying that should probably take a tour of a hospital before they do

    Sara Murray, hospitalist at UC San Francisco

    If a virus that causes less severe lung disease affects an extraordinarily large proportion of the population, you’ll still get a lot of them in the hospital with severe lung disease

    Factors

    Low vaccination uptake

    Comorbidities

    Residual circulation of delta

    Post delta infection

    Omicron areas,…

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    —Huffduffed by Bobcaygeon

  4. International data agrees

    Omicron is less severe and natural immunity works

    Link to free download of my 2 textbooks

    http://159.69.48.3/

    Clinical outcomes among patients infected with Omicron (B.1.1.529) SARS-CoV-2 variant in southern California

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.01.11.22269045v1

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.01.11.22269045v1.full.pdf

    Background

    The Omicron (B.1.1.529) variant of SARS-CoV-2 has rapidly achieved global dissemination,

    accounting for most infections in the United States by December 2021.

    November 30, 2021 to January 1, 2022, Delta v Omicron

    Using S gene target failure (SGTF) (99.7%)

    Hospital admission

    Lengths of hospital stay

    Hospital admissions associated with new-onset respiratory symptoms

    Intensive care unit (ICU) admission

    Mechanical ventilation

    Mortality

    Group 1, omicron

    N = 52,297, cases with Omicron variant infections

    Hospital admissions, 235 (0.5%)

    Mean follow-up, 5.5 days

    88 admitted

    ITU, 7

    Ventilated, 0

    Deaths, 1

    Length of hospital stay, 3.4 days (70%) less than delta

    Group 2, non – omicron (delta)

    N = 16,982, cases with Delta variant infections

    Hospital admissions, 222 (1.3%)

    Mean follow-up, 15.8 days

    189 admitted

    ITU, 23

    Ventilated, 11

    Deaths, 14

    Also

    Omicron variant infection, reduced risk of hospitalization across age and co…

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    —Huffduffed by Bobcaygeon

  5. US record breaking cases and hospitalizations

    United States, report record cases and people in hospital, for all of the pandemic so far

    https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/us-reports-least-11-mln-covid-cases-day-shattering-global-record-2022-01-11/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_term=The%20Reuters%20Daily%20Briefing&utm_content=11-1-22&utm_campaign=11-1-22

    Monday, Reuters, 1.35 million new coronavirus infections

    (Previous record was 1.03 million cases on Jan. 3.)

    Past week, 700,000 per day

    Hospitalized

    Also hit an all-time high

    Doubled in past three weeks Monday,

    136,604 people hospitalized with COVID-19

    Previous record, 132,051, January 2021

    Ongoing staff out sick

    Many elective procedures suspended

    Schools

    Staff, teachers, bus drivers

    Chicago classes cancelled

    New York City, three subway lines out

    Deaths 1,700 per day

    Pfizer, omicron vaccine in March

    Zoe study

    https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/omicron-spread-slows-but-cases-hit-vulnerable-over-75s

    US cases and deaths data https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailycases

    Colorado https://covid19.colorado.gov/data

    California https://covid19.ca.gov/state-dashboard/#todays-update

    Florida http://ww11.doh.state.fl.us/comm/_partners/covid19_report_archive/covid19-data/covid19_data_latest.pdf

    New York https://coronavirus.health.ny.gov/

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    —Huffduffed by Bobcaygeon

  6. Deltacron

    Is deltacron a new mutation with the transmissibility of omicron and the pathogenesis of delta?

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/01/09/lab-contamination-sparks-false-fears-new-deltacron-covid-variant/

    Cyprus

    Not a new form of coronavirus

    Recombination event

    Lab contamination

    Prof Leondios Kostrikis, professor of biological sciences,University of Cyprus, Head of the Laboratory of Biotechnology and Molecular Virology

    Suggested delta and omicron variants had amalgamated

    There are currently omicron and delta co-infections and we found this strain that is a combination of these two

    25 sequences were subsequently submitted to GISAID

    https://www.gisaid.org

    Dr Thomas Peacock, Imperial College London, Department of Infectious Disease

    November, very small cluster,

    really awful spike mutation profile

    B.1.1.529, later omicron

    Deltacron genetic profile

    Looks to be quite clearly contamination

    Several colleagues

    almost definitely contamination

    doesn’t look like a real recombinant

    Dr Simon Clarke, University of Reading

    It’s perfectly possible for different versions of the virus that causes Covid-19 to combine sections of their genetic material,

    creating a recombinant,

    which is a genetic mosaic of the different variants

    with altered characteristics,

    but they contain a number of telltale …

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    —Huffduffed by Bobcaygeon

  7. Symptoms and Sequelae

    Common cold symptoms with acute infection, but can there be long term after effects of infection.

    Link to free download of my 2 textbooks, http://159.69.48.3/

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19/latestinsights

    Long COVID continues to affect more than a million people

    1.3 million people (2%)

    in the four weeks to 6 December 2021

    LC for less than 12 weeks

    21% (270,000 people)

    LC for more than 12 weeks

    70% (892,000 people)

    LC for a year or more

    40% (506,000 people)

    20% reported their ability to undertake day-to-day activities had been “limited a lot”

    Symptoms

    Fatigue, 51%

    Loss of smell, 37%

    Shortness of breath, 36%

    Difficulty in concentrating, 28%

    Self-reported long COVID was greatest in:

    aged 35 to 69 years

    females

    people living in more deprived areas

    those working in health care and social care

    those with another activity-limiting health condition or disability

    those in teaching and education Encephalitis lethargica

    https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Encephalitis-lethargica-mortality-in-Britain-1918-1940_fig7_261835322

    Sleepy sickness

    https://academic.oup.com/brain/article/140/8/2246/3970828

    Brain disease

    Statue-like condition, speechless, motionless

    One million victims or more

    Half a milli…

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    —Huffduffed by Bobcaygeon

  8. Omicron growth for next two weeks

    United States omicron surge will continue

    https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/district-of-columbia?view=resource-use&tab=trend&resource=all_resources

    https://www.publichealth.columbia.edu/public-health-now/news/jeffrey-shaman-where-pandemic-might-take-us-2022

    New York hospitals

    https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/04/health/covid-omicron-hospitalizations.html

    Incidental positives 50% to 65%

    Dr. Rahul Sharma, emergency physician

    We are seeing an increase in the number of hospitalizations

    But the severity of the disease looks different from previous waves

    We’re not sending as many patients to the I.C.U.,

    we’re not intubating as many patients,

    and actually, most of our patients that are coming to the emergency department that do test positive are actually being discharged

    France, Omicron wave

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/jan/07/covid-news-live-bolsonaro-criticises-plans-to-vaccinate-young-children-as-brazil-cases-soar

    Prof Alain Fischer

    I think we are coming to the peak of this new wave primarily towards the beginning of the second fortnight of January,

    so if we work it out this would be in around 10 days’ time

    Sir David Spiegelhalter, University of Cambridge

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-59902498

    There’s still no sign of a serio…

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    —Huffduffed by Bobcaygeon

  9. Omicron, as anticipated

    One in 15 people in England infected

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19/latestinsights

    had coronavirus in Final week of 2021

    (5 January 2022)

    One in 15 people in England would have tested positive

    London (1 in 10 people)

    South West of England (1 in 30)

    England – 3,270,800 people (1 in 15)

    Wales – 157,900 people (1 in 20)

    Northern Ireland – 72,900 people (1 in 25)

    Scotland – 238,000 people (1 in 20)

    Coronavirus (COVID-19) deaths fall in England and Wales

    Week ending 24 December 2021

    England and Wales, deaths

    591 deaths from COVID-19 registered,

    (1 in every 22 deaths or 4.5%)

    Previous week

    755 deaths, (6.1% of all deaths registered).

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  10. Omicron is displacing delta science

    Omicron infection also produced immunity against Delta. This means someone who has been infected with delta is largely immune to subsequent delta infection. Therefore delta will soon have no one to infect, therefore will go away.

    Omicron infection enhances neutralizing immunity against the Delta variantOmicron infection enhances neutralizing immunity against the Delta variant

    https://www.ahri.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/MEDRXIV-2021-268439v1-Sigal_corr.pdf

    Africa Health Research Institute, Durban, South Africa

    School of Laboratory Medicine and Medical Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal

    Omicron has been shown to be highly transmissible

    Omicron has extensive evasion of neutralizing antibody immunity,

    elicited by vaccination and previous SARS-CoV-2 infection.

    Omicron infections are rapidly expanding worldwide often in the face of high levels of Delta infections.

    Question

    Do omicron antibodies neutralise delta virus variant?

    Does neutralizing immunity elicited by Omicron also enhances neutralizing immunity against the Delta variant?

    Method

    Isolated the omicron and delta virus

    Tested these against the plasma of 15 confirmed omicron cases

    Used a live virus neutralization assay (Vero E6 cells were propagated in complete growth medium)

    Calculated the focus reduction neutralization test …

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    —Huffduffed by Bobcaygeon

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