This week on Spark - We question the modern compulsion to share all the details of our lives with others. A look at surveillance concerns as we continue to capture everything going on around us. And inside colour forecasting. Really! Just click the Listen button, or click here to download
Tagged with “forecasting” (3)
Today’s talk covers the dynamic Bayesian forecasting model Drew Linzer used at votamatic.org to correctly call the outcome of all 50 states in his final forecast, which was posted on Election Day at 7:29 a.m. PST.
Why are so many experts so wrong, yet people keep listening to them? Who really is worth listening to about the future? The author of Expert Political Judgement builds on Isaah Berlin’s characterization of judgment modes into Hedgehogs (who know one big thing) and Foxes (who know many things). Hedgehogs don’t notice and don’t care when they’re wrong; that’s why they’re so compelling. Foxes learn.