This the the first of hopefully a series of talks on Bitcoin. The hope is to assess it as a disruption but first we need to understand the differences between a store of wealth, a currency and money. Then we need to understand what jobs each of these is hired to do and whether Bitcoin is better or worse than the incumbents and whether it has “headroom” to get better in those cases where it’s not good enough.
Tagged with “asymco” (10)
Horace Dediu joins us for a discussion about the history of the space industry and its more recent commercial direction. We touch on the history of governmental and private investments in space as well as possible asymmetric strategies for the future including a railgun and the ever elusive space elevator. Does the commercial exploitation of space fit within a timescale business is able to accept?
Are cars sold or purchased? Horace Dediu and Jim Zellmer discuss automotive “ecosystems” vis-à-vis Apple and Tesla’s direct sales model. We further dive into the rigidity and risk of such value chains and divert a bit into automakers’ attempts at aviation. Finally, we consider the potential monetization of automotive metadata and what that might mean for new, perhaps “over the top” style entrants. [31MB 63 minute mp3]
Also history lessons: Ford Trimotor, Ford production system, The Kaiser people’s car.
<p>Horace Dediu and Jim Zellmer discuss how to think about cars in this 57 minute podcast. </p>
<p>Horace: That is, indeed, probably the most exciting way because an outsider will come in, look at the problem as an information problem not a transportation problem. They’ll look at it and say…This would be my dream.</p>
<p>Someone would say, “You know, I see the job to be done here. The job is people don’t want [to own] cars. Ownership of cars is not just expensive but it’s actually adding a lot of waiting into your life. Waiting in traffic, waiting to park. Waiting at line in the DMV, whatever. You’ve got all these hassles associated with cars… So we’re going to solve your problem of transportation by providing you with less waiting.”</p>
<p>And then they say, “That’s an information problem because knowing where the cars are and so on and allocating the car.” The car at that moment is ‘off-the-shelf’ and you say, “OK, but we’ll just pick whatever cars are available. Oh, if it’s electric it’s even better because our economics are going to be better with electric cars. It won’t break as much and so on.”</p>
<p>The innovator in this case looks at it as an information problem, attacks a job to be done that’s on that, uses off the shelf technology which is just a city car with electric drive, and then goes back to the manufacturer and tells them, ‘You know what would make them better is if we had this, that, or the other thing.’”</p>
<p>And then the manufacturer would say, “Thanks, we’ll get back to you in five years.”</p>
<p>You don’t have that time. So you say, “No, I want to have it done in the next six months.”</p>
<p>Then you start to think, “You know what? Maybe I can make the car myself.”</p>
<p>That is really the spark of a potential story…And that’s the cool thing is it’s the same thing that happened with smartphones where Apple said, “In order for us to get a better phone we need to solve these problems and that may involve getting into new businesses.”</p>
<p>You get into apps. You get into services. You get into Siri. You get into…Suddenly you’re solving a whole set of different problems.</p>
<p>Jim: Owning and leasing capital equipment.</p>
<p>Horace: Yeah. But the fuel was the huge profit you got because you solved a job. The fuel to get you into the new industries is supplied in ample quantities, beyond what you can absorb. And so suddenly, this guy was making a business selling information, really, to consumers about where to get a car at a time when they need it and not to get a car when they don’t need it. That simple shift makes them, hopefully, wealthy beyond their wildest dreams. They say, “You know what? I have so much capital now I can buy a car company.” And they’re actually quite cheap to buy because, as you know, they don’t make much money. And so, they’re usually wasting assets.</p>
<p>You go in and they could go and grab Saab, for example. Boom, just pick up Saab for peanuts or pick up a brand out of the UK or something and the Indians did. They bought Jaguar. They bought Land Rover. BMW bought Mini, which was essentially a defunct brand in the UK, as well.</p>
<p>You can get that and you get the brand and you get some tooling, some facilities, some distribution network, whatever. Throw most of it away and rebuild the business along the lines that serve this need. And so, they would then create a niche for themselves in electric vehicles optimized around the job to be done of not being owned.</p>
<h4>Runtime - 57:00</h4>
<h4>Shownotes read √</h4>
Horace investigates asymmetric organization structure, and how Apple’s functional vision of careers and jobs differ from most tech companies.
Interview with asymco
I was lucky enough to speak to Horace Dediu today at Swipe Conference. We discuss the rise and fall of the PC, and some of the parallels that can be drawn from the rise of mobile platforms today. Which mobile platforms are destined to succeed, and who will fade away? And why can’t some analysts count the iPad as a PC replacement? Horace also discusses the amazing iPad app he used today in his presentation.
Interview conducted April 19th 2012.
5by5 - 5by5 Specials #5: Fat Wireless: iPad 3rd Generation
What decisions can managers take to increase their probability of successfully building innovation-driven growth businesses? Many are convinced that it is impossible to predict with confidence whether an innovation will succeed, so they feel they need to place a number of bets with the hope that some will be winners. Others believe that the best way to create new growth businesses is to meticulously search for detailed quantitative data to identify opportunities and develop a rigorous plan to attack those opportunities. But many times conclusive data is only available after the game has already been won. Professor Christensen has another way. He suggests using theory. Every action a manager takes, every plan a manager makes is based on some belief of cause and effect.